* Modele no.10 du manuel sur * ADOPTION ET L"IMPACT DES NOUVELLES TECHNOLOGIES * William Masters et Jeffrey Vitale (Purdue Univ.), nov. 1998 * 1145 Krannert Bldg., West Lafayette IN 47907 * ph. 1 765 494 4235, fax 1 765 494 9176 * masters@agecon.purdue.edu; vitale@agecon.purdue.edu * Ce modele impose des limites sur l'utilisation des engrais * au niveau national, et sur l'utilisation de la main d'oeuvre * dans chaque region, dans le contexte de l'adoption des * nouvelles technologies. SET i /sorgho, mil , niebe, coton, mais/ ; SET r /cereal, coton, bamako/; SET k /seche, moyenne, bonne/ ; ALIAS (r,q); PARAMETERS A(i,r), B(i,r); POSITIVE VARIABLES D(i,r,k), TC(i,r), TR(i,r,k); VARIABLE EBES, SW(k) ; EQUATION objectif ; PARAMETER prob(k); objectif .. EBES =E= sum(k,prob(k)* sum((i,r),A(i,r)*D(i,r,k)*D(i,r,k)/2 + B(i,r)*D(i,r,k) - TC(i,r) - TR(i,r,k) )) ; SET j /trad, ameliore/; POSITIVE VARIABLE X(i,j,r); EQUATION terres(r); PARAMETER S(r); terres(r) .. SUM(i, SUM(j, X(i,j,r)) ) =L= S(r); EQUATION equilibre(i,r,k) ; POSITIVE VARIABLE O(i,r,k) ; VARIABLE T(i,q,r,k) ; equilibre(i,r,k) .. D(i,r,k) =L= O(i,r,k) + SUM(q, T(i,q,r,k)) ; EQUATIONS calcoffre(i,r,k), calccouts(i,r) ; TABLE Y(i,j,r,k) seche moyenne bonne sorgho.trad.cereal 470 570 620 sorgho.ameliore.cereal 870 1430 1460 sorgho.trad.coton 570 698 830 sorgho.ameliore.coton 1050 1261 1500 mil.trad.cereal 450 570 670 mil.ameliore.cereal 870 1100 1200 mil.trad.coton 540 680 685 mil.ameliore.coton 803 1171 1286 niebe.trad.cereal 830 1300 1420 niebe.ameliore.cereal 1090 1430 1521 coton.trad.coton 850 1200 1500 coton.ameliore.coton 1242 2436 2959 mais.trad.coton 2000 2500 3080 mais.ameliore.coton 2450 3000 3400 ; PARAMETER c(i,j) ; calcoffre(i,r,k) .. -SUM(j, Y(i,j,r,k)*X(i,j,r)) +O(i,r,k) =E= 0; calccouts(i,r) .. -SUM(j, c(i,j)*X(i,j,r)) +TC(i,r) =E= 0; EQUATION calctransp(i,r,k); PARAMETER h(i,q,r); calctransp(i,r,k) .. -SUM(q, h(i,q,r)*T(i,q,r,k)) + TR(i,r,k)=E= 0; EQUATION equiltrans(i,q,r,k); equiltrans(i,q,r,k) .. T(i,q,r,k) + T(i,r,q,k) =E= 0; EQUATION labor(r); PARAMETERS DMO(i,j), OMO(r); labor(r) .. SUM(i, SUM(j,DMO(i,j)*X(i,j,r))) =L= OMO(r) ; EQUATION engrais; PARAMETER utilisengr(i,j), totengrais; engrais .. SUM((i,j,r), utilisengr(i,j)*X(i,j,r)) =L= totengrais; PARAMETER Dequil(i,r), Pequil(i,r); PARAMETER subsist; subsist = 180; SET type /rurale, urbane/; PARAMETER popcereal(type), popcoton(type), popbamako; popcereal('rurale') = 4192000; popcereal('urbane') = 999000; popcoton('rurale') = 2508000; popcoton('urbane') = 551000; popbamako = 941000; Dequil('sorgho','cereal') = .45*subsist*(popcereal('rurale')+popcereal('urbane')); Dequil('sorgho','coton') = .45*subsist*(popcoton('rurale')+popcoton('urbane')); Dequil('sorgho','bamako') = .25*subsist*popbamako; Dequil('mil ','cereal') = .45*subsist*(popcereal('rurale')+popcereal('urbane')); Dequil('mil ','coton') = .45*subsist*(popcoton('rurale')+popcoton('urbane')); Dequil('mil ','bamako') = .25*subsist*popbamako; Dequil('niebe','cereal') = 50*(popcereal('rurale')+popcereal('urbane')); Dequil('niebe','coton') = 50*(popcoton('rurale')+popcoton('urbane')); Dequil('niebe','bamako') = 50*popbamako; Dequil('mais','cereal') = .1*subsist*(popcereal('rurale')+popcereal('urbane')); Dequil('mais','coton') = .1*subsist*(popcoton('rurale')+popcoton('urbane')); Dequil('mais','bamako') = .1*subsist*popbamako; Dequil('coton','cereal') = 1; Dequil('coton','bamako') = 1; Dequil('coton','coton') = 452046000; Pequil('sorgho',r) = 99; Pequil('mil ',r) = 97; Pequil('niebe',r) = 171; Pequil('coton',r) = 155; Pequil('mais',r) = 83; PARAMETER epsilon(i,r) ; epsilon('sorgho',r) = -.5; epsilon('mil ',r) = -.5; epsilon('niebe',r) = -.5; epsilon('mais',r) = -.5; epsilon('coton','cereal') = -.1; epsilon('coton','bamako') = -.1; epsilon('coton','coton') = -10000000; A(i,r) = Pequil(i,r)/(Dequil(i,r)*epsilon(i,r)) ; B(i,r) = Pequil(i,r)*(1 - 1/epsilon(i,r)) ; H(i,q,r) = 0; S('cereal') = 901906; S('coton') = 1189789; TABLE C(i,j) trad ameliore sorgho 1500 22250 mil 1500 22250 niebe 1500 23000 coton 32000 52200 mais 51500 55500 ; DMO('sorgho','trad') = 208; DMO('sorgho','ameliore') = 227; DMO('mil ','trad') = 208; DMO('mil ','ameliore') = 227; DMO('niebe','trad') = 379; DMO('niebe','ameliore') = 440; OMO('cereal') = (popcereal('rurale')+popcereal('urbane'))*9547/(4+3+4) ; OMO('coton') = (popcoton('rurale')+popcoton('urbane'))*9547/(4+3+4) ; utilisengr('sorgho','trad') = 0; utilisengr('sorgho','ameliore') = 100; utilisengr('mil ','trad') = 0; utilisengr('mil ','ameliore') = 100; utilisengr('niebe','trad') = 100; utilisengr('niebe','ameliore') = 100; utilisengr('coton','trad') = 150; utilisengr('coton','ameliore') = 250; utilisengr('mais','trad') = 150; utilisengr('mais','ameliore') = 150; totengrais = 1500000; prob('seche') = .3 ; prob('moyenne') = .45 ; prob('bonne')=.25 ; MODEL modele10 /objectif, terres, equilibre, calcoffre, calccouts, calctransp, equiltrans, labor, engrais/ ; SOLVE modele10 maximizing EBES using NLP;